Financial Model
A 5-year bottom-up financial model covering all four AxiForge revenue paths — deployment contracts, software subscriptions, AI Robotics, and Build-Operate-Sell (needle factory ramp to full NHS market). Available in full to waitlist members within 24 hours of joining.
What is it?
A financial model is a structured projection of the company's revenue, costs, and cash flows over a defined time horizon. AxiForge's model is built bottom-up — each revenue line is derived from the number of plant deployments, deployment fees, and subscription contracts, not from top-down market share assumptions. It includes a P&L, Cash Flow Statement, Balance Sheet, and deployment scenario analysis.
Why it matters
- Shows investors the unit economics behind each deployment
- Validates the path to ARR and the seed round runway
- Quantifies the three revenue paths and their interdependence
- Demonstrates financial discipline and planning maturity
- Required for SEIS/EIS advance assurance preparation
- Foundation for Series A fundraising conversations
The financial model covers a 36-month period from the seed close date and includes the following components:
- Profit & Loss Statement — monthly revenue, cost of goods sold, gross margin, operating expenses, and EBITDA
- Cash Flow Statement — operating, investing, and financing cash flows with monthly cash runway
- Balance Sheet — assets, liabilities, and equity at each period end
- Deployment Projections — client acquisition timeline across all three revenue paths, sector by sector
- Scenario Analysis — base case, conservative (−30% deployments), and upside (+30%) variants
- Use of Funds Waterfall — allocation of seed capital across R&D, sales, manufacturing, and administration
Revenue is modelled across three independent paths, each with distinct unit economics:
Path 01 — Technology Licensing
- Deployment fee per plant: £80,000–£200,000 (varies by sector and scope)
- Annual software subscription: £15,000–£40,000 per plant
- Gross margin target: 60–70% on subscriptions, 35–45% on deployments
- Average sales cycle: 3–6 months from first contact to contract
Path 02 — Own Autonomous Factories
- Deskraft.pl furniture line: modelled as operating revenue from existing capacity
- Revenue grows with production throughput, not headcount
- Serves as a live reference site — acquisition cost benefit applied to Path 01 pipeline
Path 03 — Build-Operate-Sell
- First target: UK medical needle manufacturing facility
- Operating phase: 3–7 years generating EBITDA before exit
- Exit multiple: 8–14× EBITDA (comparable: MMT acquisition Dec 2025, 13.7×)
- IP retained by AxiForge Holdings at exit — redeployable to next facility
The table below shows the structure of the deployment projection model. Full figures — including ARR, cumulative deployments, and cash runway — are available to waitlist members.
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| New deployments (Path 01) | Restricted | Restricted | Restricted |
| Cumulative active plants | Restricted | Restricted | Restricted |
| Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) | Restricted | Restricted | Restricted |
| Deployment revenue | Restricted | Restricted | Restricted |
| EBITDA | Restricted | Restricted | Restricted |
| Cash runway (months) | Restricted | Restricted | Restricted |
The seed round proceeds are allocated to the following areas. This breakdown is fixed and will be included in the investment documentation:
The model projects an 18-month runway from seed close at the base case deployment rate. Detailed monthly cash burn and runway is available in the full model.
Macro Assumptions
- GBP/PLN exchange rate: modelled at 5.00 (±10% sensitivity applied)
- UK energy costs: stable — no embedded energy-price escalation beyond CPI
- SME manufacturing CAPEX budgets: modelled using Made Smarter programme co-funding availability
- Interest rates: no debt financing in the model — seed round is equity only
Identified Risk Factors
- Sales cycle elongation — SME procurement decisions can slip by 1–3 months; base case applies a 4-month average
- Component supply — embedded sensitivity for 15% component cost increase in years 2–3
- Talent acquisition — key engineering hires modelled at market-rate salaries post-seed close
- Regulatory — no material regulatory risk identified for the current product scope; medical manufacturing (Path 03) carries MHRA approval timeline risk
Redacted in Public Preview
Demand projections are grounded in sector-level data — not top-down market share assumptions. Each target sector has a quantified demand signal from a named source. This is the demand picture the financial model is built on.
74%
of UK mfg SMEs have no robot installed
MTC, 2025
104
robots/10k workers in UK vs global avg 177
IFR 2024
18→50%
highly automated manufacturers today → by 2030
PwC, 2026
63%
of UK manufacturers plan robotics investment in 24 months
Make UK, 2024
Food & Beverage
AF + Robotics24,880 UK firms · 98.8% SMEs · EU cobot CAGR 29.1%
ONS/DEFRA 2024 · MarketDataForecast 2025
Pharmaceuticals & MedTech
AF + Robotics#1 fastest-growing automation sector · 65% plan PdM AI
Roland Berger 2026 · DHSC/DSIT 2024
Fabricated Metal Products
AF + Robotics~27,000 UK enterprises · robot installs +12% CAGR since 2018
ONS 2024 · IFR 2024 · MTC 2025
Electronics & Electrical
AF + Robotics129,000 robot units installed globally in 2024 — largest sector
IFR World Robotics 2025
Packaging
Robotics$40.9B market · ROI payback 18–24 months · CAGR 7.78%
Towards Packaging 2024
Automotive Supply Chain
Robotics2,500+ UK component suppliers · 40% workforce in SMEs
SMMT 2024
Plastics & Polymers
Robotics~5,800 UK enterprises · ~10% of global cobot demand
BPF · ForInsights 2024
Furniture & Wood Products
AF~9,000 UK firms · robot installs +63% YoY (CE Europe)
FIRA 2023 · IFR/Plastech 2024
Textiles & Apparel
AF~14,700 UK businesses · lowest automation penetration
ONS 2023 · UKFT
Revenue trajectory and exit valuation are independent calculations. The business generates ongoing revenue regardless of whether an exit occurs. Base case exit at Year 5: £497M at 14× EBITDA — while the business continues generating £94.1M/year.
Annual Revenue Y1–Y5 · All Paths Combined
| Year | Conservative | Base | Optimistic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | £7.7M | £11.6M | £17.2M |
| Year 2 | £25.6M | £39.7M | £65.0M |
| Year 3Key | £37.2M | £63.4M | £103.9M |
| Year 4 | £51.7M | £85.3M | £152.5M |
| Year 5Key | £55.3M | £94.1M | £177.2M |
Path 03 — Needle Factory · NHS Market Capture (£70–75M/year)
Axiforge enters as sole UK domestic producer. Revenue grows as market share is captured — not fixed at initial capacity.
Exit Valuation at Year 5 · 14× EBITDA
EBITDA margins: deployment fees 30% · software subscriptions 75% · needle factory 28–38% · robotics monitoring 70%. Precedent: MMT acquisition 13.7× EBITDA, Dec 2025 (Scope Research M&A Database).
| Metric | Conservative | Base | Optimistic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Y5 Revenue | £55.3M | £94.1M | £177.2M |
| Blended EBITDA margin | 24% | 38% | 39% |
| EBITDA | £13.4M | £35.5M | £69.1M |
| Exit Value (14× EBITDA) | £187M | £497M | £967M |
Sources: IFR World Robotics 2025 · MTC 2025 · Make UK 2024 · PwC Industrial Mfg Outlook 2026 · Roland Berger 2026 · NHS Supply Chain framework 2025 · Scope Research M&A Database · ONS 2024 · Grand View Research · MarketsandMarkets.
Access the Full Financial Model
The complete 3-year model — including all projections, scenario analysis, and cash runway — is delivered within 24 hours to waitlist members. Submit your details below and we will send it directly to your inbox.
Investor Perspective
A bottom-up financial model is one of the first documents an investor requests after the pitch deck. It reveals the founder's understanding of their unit economics — how much each client costs to acquire, how long until they generate profit, and how much runway the round buys. A top-down model ("if we capture 1% of a £4B market") signals low financial literacy. AxiForge's model is built from deployment counts upward, which is the standard expected by institutional investors and SEIS/EIS advisers.